{"id":18098,"date":"2020-07-30T05:45:21","date_gmt":"2020-07-30T04:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=18098"},"modified":"2020-07-30T05:45:21","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T04:45:21","slug":"fals-pozitivitatea-si-perceptia-subiectiva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=18098","title":{"rendered":"Fals pozitivitatea \u0219i percep\u021bia subiectiv\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cen contextul unui curent de negare a existen\u021bei virusului \u0219i a politicilor statului, rezultatele neconcludente<\/a> ale testelor fotbali\u0219tilor alora dau ap\u0103 la moar\u0103 celor care sunt sceptici cu privire la gradul de importan\u021b\u0103 acordat epidemiei c\u00e2t \u0219i m\u0103surilor de distan\u021bare social\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu-i nimic, nu sunt speciali, astfel de curente au ap\u0103rut \u0219i \u00een \u021b\u0103ri str\u0103ine, dimpreun\u0103 cu renun\u021barea la m\u0103surile de distan\u021bare \u0219i \u00een mai multe state vine valu’ iar. Probabil cu o mortalitate mai mic\u0103, pen’ c\u0103 acum sunt tratamente mai un pic mai bune – vorbesc de alte \u021b\u0103ri, \u00een cazul \u0103sta, desigur. \u00cen Rom\u00e2nia doar gargar\u0103 \u0219i #statiincasa p\u00e2n\u0103 face\u021bi mucegai. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concluziile, statistic vorbind, nu-s corecte , sau utile. Da, se vorbe\u0219te de o pozitivitate fals\u0103 ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 cifrele raportate ar putea fi umflate.\u00a0 Exist\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 probabilitatea de fals negativ, iar ceea ce conteaz\u0103 nu e at\u00e2t de mult sensul erorii fa\u021b\u0103 de adev\u0103r ci faptul c\u0103 varian\u021ba ( marja de eroare, \u00een limbaj comun ) e destul de mare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adic\u0103, da, ar putea s\u0103 fie, s\u0103 zicem 700 de cazuri pe zi, \u00een loc de 1100, dar la fel ar putea s\u0103 fie \u0219i 1500. Din cele testate, c\u0103 nu \u0219tim nici m\u0103car aproximativ c\u00e2te sunt in termeni reali. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Problema execu\u021biei sau a calit\u0103\u021bii proaste a testelor e dat\u0103 de buluceal\u0103, cererea crescut\u0103 adic\u0103, care probabil dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te capacitatea de execu\u021bie, sau poate e o problem\u0103 sistemic\u0103, caz \u00een care am putea s\u0103 ne pi\u0219am pe aparatele alea, pentru un test de urin\u0103, desigur, dar ministrul boalelor sus\u021bine c\u0103 nu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Am observat \u00een o gr\u0103mad\u0103 de articole cum mul\u021bi omule\u021bi se testeaz\u0103 ei preventiv pe banii lor, hr\u0103nind statisticile \u00eentr-un fel sau altul. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu m\u0103 simt \u00een pozi\u021bia s\u0103 spun cuiva ce s\u0103 fac\u0103 cu via\u021ba sau cu banii lui, dar g\u0103sesc c\u0103 \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103 e inutil , dac\u0103 nu contraproductiv s\u0103 te testezi de bun\u0103voie, f\u0103r\u0103 niciun motiv, doar ca s\u0103 \u0219tii tu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sigur, totul pleac\u0103 de la o excesiv\u0103 grij\u0103 pentru ceilal\u021bi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se pleac\u0103 de la faptul c\u0103, vai, DSP-ul nu m-am testat, nu m-am intervievat , nu mi-a supt pula. Da , posibil c\u0103 \u0103ia nu \u00ee\u0219i fac treaba, sau poate au prea mult\u0103, plm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dup\u00e9 care , tu te testezi “de drag”, afli un rezultat cu o marja semnificativ\u0103 de eroare , \u00eentr-un sens sau altul \u0219i ac\u021bionezi \u00een ceea ce crezi c\u0103 este cuno\u0219tin\u021b\u0103 de cauz\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adic\u0103 dac\u0103 e\u0219ti pozitiv te izolezi, ceri concediu medical – nu-i chiar na\u0219pa, bani gratis, pe nemunc\u0103. Dar creezi niste lan\u021buri de repaos for\u021bat nenecesare. Sau e\u0219ti declarat negativ \u0219i ie\u0219i la sigur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eu unul pentru mine nu m-a\u0219 testa \u0219i nu o s-o fac vreodat\u0103 dac\u0103 nu sunt obligat de circumstan\u021be. Nu am simptome nu m\u0103 testez. B\u0103nuiesc c\u0103 a\u0219 putea s\u0103 o fi luat-o ca contact. M\u0103 distan\u021bez un pic. Un pic. Am simptome, fac un pas \u00een spate. Dac\u0103 ajung la spital de bine ce \u00eemi e, nu am grij\u0103 probabil m\u0103 testeaz\u0103 \u0103ia. Mi se cere \/ impune cu consecin\u021be legale s\u0103 m\u0103 testez, fie \u0219i fiind asimptomatic. Ok, am s\u0103 o fac, \u00een cazul \u0103la, c\u0103 e vorba de respectarea legii \u0219i de, b\u0103nuiesc, clarificarea unor suspiciuni ale organelor statului. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acestea fiind zise, fatalitatea curent\u0103, incepe s\u0103 se asemene cu cea din aprilie, ceea ce indic\u0103, cu toate erorile din teste \u0219i subiectivismul din raport\u0103ri , o cre\u0219tere a r\u0103sp\u00e2ndirii, nimic de nea\u0219teptat, sau tragic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Singurul lucru tragic, dar nici \u0103la surprinz\u0103tor , s\u0103 fim sinceri, e c\u0103 din februarie \u0219i p\u00e2n\u0103 acum, alte state \u0219i-au \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bit procedurile \u0219i capacitatea de a asista pacien\u021bii. Coaie, au trecut 4 luni. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen Rom\u00e2nia e la fel. Cum ar veni, ne-au \u021binut pe care ne-au prins pe arest preventiv, au dat amenzi, \u0219i-au b\u0103gat pula in economie pe toate p\u0103r\u021bile f\u0103r\u0103 ca pe partea lor s\u0103 ia vreo m\u0103sur\u0103. Iar asta e o m\u0103sur\u0103 lipsit\u0103 de creier. S\u0103 ai o popula\u021bie pe care o izolezi, deci nu ia contact, \u0219i s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 o s\u0103 po\u021bi s\u0103 \u00eei \u021bii pe to\u021bi izola\u021bi pe termen indefinit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Degeaba spumeg\u0103 Iohannis c\u0103 de vin\u0103 e PSD-ul ca nu le aprob\u0103 m\u0103surile de a mai fute to\u021bi cet\u0103\u021benii ni\u0219te luni. Realitatea e c\u0103 sunt \u0219i el \u0219i guvernul ni\u0219te incompeten\u021bi cu cr\u0103ci. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar nu conteaz\u0103, ce conteaz\u0103 e c\u0103 vre\u021bi nu vre\u021bi, valul doi tot o s\u0103 vin\u0103, probabil mai degrab\u0103 la \u021b\u0103rile care au avut un val 1 mic, dac\u0103 nu cumva virusul sufer\u0103 vreo muta\u021bie semnificativ\u0103 \u0219i o ia iar\u0103\u0219i la r\u00e2nd . <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00cen contextul unui curent de negare a existen\u021bei virusului \u0219i a politicilor statului, rezultatele neconcludente ale testelor fotbali\u0219tilor alora dau ap\u0103 la moar\u0103 celor care…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18097,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6,744,170,887],"tags":[3796],"class_list":["post-18098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-de-criza","category-law-and-order","category-politice","category-propaganda","tag-covid-19"],"views":2526,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/41WXaxbNkOL.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-4HU","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18098\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18097"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}