{"id":24126,"date":"2023-02-22T05:32:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-22T05:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=24126"},"modified":"2023-02-20T08:58:10","modified_gmt":"2023-02-20T08:58:10","slug":"treaba-asta-cu-ajutorul-nato-oferit-ucrainei-pare-calea-lunga-si-ineficienta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=24126","title":{"rendered":"Treaba asta cu ajutorul NATO oferit Ucrainei pare calea lung\u0103 \u0219i ineficient\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zic pare <\/strong> c\u0103 nu sunt expert militar \u0219i \u00een geopolitic\u0103 \u0219i nu pot cunoa\u0219te triggerele geopolitice, sensibilitatea lor \u0219i mecanicile care se pot \u00eent\u00e2mpla. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cemi imaginez c\u0103 motivul pentru care NATO le-a sifonat ucrainienilor ajutor militar cu \u021b\u00e2r\u00e2ita \u0219i nu s-au implicat direct sunt pentru a evita declan\u0219area anumitor triggere \u00een Rusia \u0219i \u00een alte \u021b\u0103ri care s-ar fi putut alia f\u0103\u021bi\u0219 Rusiei gener\u00e2nd un nou conflict mondial, acili\u0219ea \u00een u\u0219a noastr\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Celelalte op\u021biuni ar fi <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. c\u0103 \u201dn-aveam mai mult\u201d, nu eram preg\u0103ti\u021bi, care poate fi un pic ru\u0219inos, <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. nu vrem s\u0103 oferim mai mult \u00eentruc\u00e2t urm\u0103rim m\u0103cinarea resurselor \u0219i de o parte \u0219i de alta s\u0103 nu ias\u0103 Ucraina prea bine, nici Rusia \u0219i s\u0103 ne facem \u0219i banii bani din industria militar\u0103<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Am s\u0103 trec ultimul punct la consira\u021bionisme c\u0103 ar fi o pat\u0103 c\u00e2t toat\u0103 fa\u021ba lumii civilizate \u0219i prefer s\u0103 m\u0103 g\u00e2ndesc la asta dup\u0103 epuizarea celorlalte posibilit\u0103\u021bi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    De aia zic, poate or avea \u0219i ei dreptatea lor s\u0103 fie pruden\u021bi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pe de alt\u0103 parte, NATO au oferit \u0219i ofer\u0103 Ucrainei sum\u0103 de echipament militar \u0219i cred c\u0103 ne \u00eendrept\u0103m spre avioane<\/a>. \u00cencet \u00eencet se preg\u0103te\u0219te terenul. Dac\u0103 e s\u0103 fie vorba de declan\u0219area unor triggere care s\u0103 ralieze sus\u021binerea altor \u021b\u0103ri pentru Rusia, sau un conflict nuclear, cred c\u0103 ajungem la vorba aia rom\u00e2neas\u0103 \u201docoli casa, ocoli p\u0103tulul \u0219i tot \u00een cur ne nimeri\u201d, lu\u0103nd-o pe ocolite. \u00cen final, punctul critic e punct critic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Repet, poate m\u0103 \u00een\u0219el, c\u0103 nu sunt expert \u0219i n-o s\u0103 \u0219tim niciodat\u0103 alternativa, c\u0103 nu s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat. Dar, \u00een mintea mea, dac\u0103 le-ai dat tot, \u0219i vrei s\u0103 le mai dai \u0218I AVIOANE, ie\u0219ea mai bine dac\u0103 le protejai cerul din ziua 1, c\u00e2nd au cerut, le ar\u0103tai sus\u021binere, ru\u0219ii nu puteau \u00eenainta, se negocia direct atunci \u00een condi\u021biile \u0103lea, sau alternativa nasoal\u0103, <\/strong> r\u0103zboi full scale, \u00een func\u021bie de dispozi\u021bia lui Putin din ziua aia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nu cred c\u0103 cre\u0219terea ajutorului oferit de statele vestice Ucrainei e suficient pe termen scurt. Ru\u0219ii \u00ee\u0219i intensific\u0103 eforturile c\u0103 2023 e precampanie pentru alegerile din 2024 – ceva trebuie s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple p\u00e2na atunci \u0219i vor pe pozitiv pentru ei. \u00cen 2024 sunt alegeri \u0219i \u00een Ucraina \u0219i NU \u0218TII \u00een ce direc\u021bie se duce treaba, c\u0103 nu e nimic b\u0103tut \u00een cuie. Poporul ucrainian a fost din 2014 profund pro-european, nu serios, eu nu pot uita asta, s\u0103 treci prin ce trec \u0103ia \u0219i s\u0103 nu te \u00eenmoi, a\u0219a rache\u021bi \u0219i neciviliza\u021bi cum \u00eei vedem noi, e cam jos p\u0103l\u0103ria. \u00cen momentul de fa\u021b\u0103 o parte important\u0103 din popula\u021bia lor ( peste 5 milioane, am pierdut num\u0103rul ) sunt \u00een exil, \u0219i \u00eei \u021bin pe bani europenii, ajuta\u021bi mai mult dec\u00e2t \u00ee\u0219i ajut\u0103 proprii cet\u0103\u021beni. Chestia asta nu e ignorabila la vot, probabil \u0103\u0219tia sunt tot votan\u021bii lui Zelensky sau ai cuiva pro-european. Niciun prorus nu poate lua voturile \u0103stora \u0219i ale apar\u021bin\u0103torilor r\u0103ma\u0219i \u00een Ucraina indiferent cu ce c\u0103cat ar vrea s\u0103 arunce \u00een Zelensky. Dar dac\u0103 e de ajuns, nu \u0219tiu, nu am cum s\u0103 \u0219tiu c\u0103 10-15 milioane sunt numere importante, dar nu majoritate, sau majoritate clar\u0103. R\u0103m\u00e2ne de v\u0103zut. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prin urmare, \u00een condi\u021biile \u0103stea, eu cred Ucraina o s\u0103 se mic\u0219oreze un pic in perioada imediat urm\u0103toare, c\u0103 Rusia d\u0103 cu tot ce are<\/a> \u0219i completeaza efectivele de carne [1]<\/a>, [2]<\/a> . Ajutul vestic poate doar face fa\u021b\u0103 cre\u0219terii presiunii, c\u0103 oricum sunt mai multe vorbe \u0219i mai pu\u021bine ma\u0219ini trimise imediat. Avioanele ar ajuta, dar dac\u0103 le trimit c\u00e2teva zeci, nu e clar \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103, c\u0103 au \u0219i ru\u0219ii avioane. Ucrainienii nu pot lua \u00eenapoi Donbas-ul sau Crimea doar cu avioane \u0219i rachete, la fel cum ru\u0219ii nu au putut lua Ucraina similar c\u00e2nd au \u00eenceput. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Pe de alt\u0103 parte, eu cred, <\/strong> c\u0103 dac\u0103 NATO le asigurau \u0103stora cerul c\u00e2nd au cerut-o , ucrainienii reu\u0219eau s\u0103-i \u021bin\u0103 acolo unde erau, \u00een limitele ocupate deja de \u201drebeli\u201d \u00een Donbas \u0219i \u00een Crimea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Riscul escalad\u0103rii conflictului la nivel \u201dfull scale\u201d, era acolo, dar DAC\u0102 NU SE \u00ceNT\u00c2MPLA ASTA, era solu\u021bia mai bun\u0103. Vestul ar\u0103ta c\u0103 are coaie \u0219i c\u0103 seteaz\u0103 limitele expansiunii Rusiei . <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Acum nu e clar ce arat\u0103 vestul, pe de o parte sus\u021bine Ucraina, pe de alta popula\u021bia \u0103stora e m\u0103cel\u0103rit\u0103 \u00een proces. Nu vestul o face, e evident c\u0103 ru\u0219ii o fac \u0219i pierd la capitolul imagine – sper , c\u0103 nu \u0219tii niciodat\u0103 cum se termin\u0103, <\/strong> pe de alta, toate echipamentele date cu \u021b\u00e2r\u00e2ita pentru a evita escalarea conflictului au avut o eficien\u021b\u0103 foarte limitat\u0103 \u0219i ca efect colateral Ucraina e distrus\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dac\u0103 nu cumva dore\u0219ti asta, nu m\u0103 pot ridica la nivelul de analiz\u0103 geopolitic\u0103 necesar pentru a \u00een\u021belege deciziile trecute. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Zic pare c\u0103 nu sunt expert militar \u0219i \u00een geopolitic\u0103 \u0219i nu pot cunoa\u0219te triggerele geopolitice, sensibilitatea lor \u0219i mecanicile care se pot \u00eent\u00e2mpla. \u00cemi…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23379,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[170,4766],"tags":[5263],"class_list":["post-24126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politice","category-razboi","tag-escalare-razboi-ucraina"],"views":947,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/War-is-business.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-6h8","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24126"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24127,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24126\/revisions\/24127"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/23379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}