{"id":26549,"date":"2023-12-08T05:09:17","date_gmt":"2023-12-08T05:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=26549"},"modified":"2023-11-30T20:50:08","modified_gmt":"2023-11-30T20:50:08","slug":"un-fenomen-investitional-ambiguu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=26549","title":{"rendered":"Un fenomen investi\u021bional ambiguu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Not\u0103: Aceasta este doar o observa\u021bie, ci nu o invita\u021bie s\u0103 investi\u021bi \u00een nimic, sau s\u0103 face\u021bi altceva cu banii vo\u0219tri. Dac\u0103 o face\u021bi \u0219i \u00eei pierde\u021bi – a se suge o ceap\u0103, nu a mi se cere mie socoteal\u0103, c\u0103 nu v\u0103 dau lec\u021bii despre cum s\u0103 face\u021bi bani, iar dac\u0103 a\u0219 \u0219ti cum , cu siguran\u021b\u0103 n-a\u0219 face-o gratis. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Infla\u021bia \u00een Rom\u00e2nia este tripl\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de media european\u0103, sau a\u0219a se vorbe\u0219te<\/a>. Nimic spectaculos, dar e mare. Pe la peste 8% oricum.<\/a> O s\u0103 mai creasc\u0103 c\u0103 vin s\u0103rb\u0103torile. Au \u00eenceput demult s\u0103 apar\u0103 oferte de <\/p>\n\n\n\n

ING ofer\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103 6% la depozite pe 1 an , 4.75% la 3 luni , sweet spotul este la 6 luni 5.25%. Da, v\u0103d c\u0103 emai mic dec\u00e2t infla\u021bia, nu sunt retardat. Estimez c\u0103 \u0219i clelalte b\u0103nci similar, nu m\u0103 uit s\u0103 v\u0103d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La euro, dob\u00e2nzile sunt aproape inexistente p\u00e2n\u0103 la 1 an, tot MAI MICI dec\u00e2t infla\u021bia. \u0218i randamentul la investi\u021bii e \u00een mare mai mic anul \u0103sta, cu excep\u021bia cazului c\u00e2nd ai speculat ceva gen , un obiect. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Atunci de ce \u00eemi bat capul? Evolu\u021bia cursului euro \u00een ultimul an a fost de la 4.95 la 4.97, undeva \u00een jurul unui procent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Din 2019 p\u00e2n\u0103 acum cursul euro a crescut cu circa 4%. Sub 1% pe an. Trend pe 5 ani. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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DAC\u0102 trendul se p\u0103streaz\u0103 – nu am de unde s\u0103 \u0219tiu asta – dar , \u00een condi\u021bii similare dac\u0103 pui bani \u00een depozit pe lei, \u00ee\u021bi iei dob\u00e2nda \u0219i \u00eei schimbi \u00een euro dup\u0103 un an ar trebui s\u0103 ai 6% la lei – 1% c\u00e2t cre\u0219te cursul euro – comisioane de schimb valutar! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deci ie\u0219i la circa 5% c\u00e2\u0219tig la euro . Infla\u021bia pe anul \u0103sta la euro va fi undeva \u00een jur de 4%. \u00cen func\u021bie de comisioanele de schimb valutar ai putea ie\u0219i \u00een schema asta cam \u00een zona infla\u021biei. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aten\u021bie, eu nu zic s\u0103 economisi\u021bi a\u0219a, doar studiez DE CE se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 anomalia asta . Nu \u0219tiu sigur, dar CRED c\u0103 vine din exces de euro pe pia\u021b\u0103 \u0219i, de unde ar putea veni asta?

BNR care controleaz\u0103 cursul \u0219i banii din PNRR ( jdemiliarde anul \u0103sta ) sunt primii candida\u021bi. Ar mai fi poate o compensare a balan\u021bei de cont extern prin cre\u0219terea exporturilor\/ reducerea importurilor? Habar nu am, nu avem cifre de 2023. O fi influen\u021bat de activit\u0103\u021bile de trading sus\u021binerea exporturilor din Ucraina? No ideea, dar primele dou\u0103 sunt candida\u021bii principali \u0219i estimez c\u0103 dac\u0103 s-ar t\u0103ia brusc \u021beava la PNRR ar sugi\u021ba cursul euro \u00een sus, cam serios, c\u0103 e o discrepan\u021b\u0103 , \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, \u00eentre infla\u021bia pe leu \u0219i pe euro. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 a\u0219 avea 1 milion de euro de jucat cu ei, care ar putrezi prin conturi degeaba , m-a\u0219 juca un pic schema asta. Dar nu am deloc \u0219i nu v\u0103 recomand nici vou\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cens\u0103 o s\u0103 m\u0103 uit peste 1 an, de curiozitate. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Not\u0103: Aceasta este doar o observa\u021bie, ci nu o invita\u021bie s\u0103 investi\u021bi \u00een nimic, sau s\u0103 face\u021bi altceva cu banii vo\u0219tri. Dac\u0103 o face\u021bi \u0219i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19972,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3499],"tags":[5700,5701,5699],"class_list":["post-26549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","tag-depozite-bancare-2023","tag-dobanzi-la-lei-euro-2023","tag-inflatia-2023"],"views":767,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/money-machine.gif","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-6Ud","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26549","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26549"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26549\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26553,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26549\/revisions\/26553"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19972"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26549"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26549"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26549"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}