{"id":26568,"date":"2024-01-04T10:47:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T10:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=26568"},"modified":"2024-01-04T16:50:53","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T16:50:53","slug":"energie-energia-nucleara-este-salvarea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=26568","title":{"rendered":"Energie : Energia nuclear\u0103 este salvarea?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n\n

Poate pe termen scurt. Poate vi se pare retardat c\u0103 Germania renun\u021b\u0103 la energia nuclear\u0103 c\u0103 nu e verde, c\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0218i mie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u0103, pe termen scurt \u0219i mediu , probabil c\u0103 energia nuclear\u0103 ne poate da offsetul de care avem nevoie s\u0103 sc\u0103p\u0103m de fosili. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar energia nuclear\u0103, \u00een modul curent de folosire, fisiune de uraniu, nu e mare br\u00e2nz\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La rata curent\u0103 a consumului global ( 170,000TWh\/ an ) – am motive s\u0103 cred c\u0103 va cre\u0219te, c\u00e2nd vom deveni mai civiliza\u021bi \u0219i ne vom permite, uraniul disponibil de a fi minat ( de care se \u0219tie) este de ordinul a 5 – 7 x 10^9 kg ( \u00eentre 5<\/a> \u0219i 7 milioane de tone, dac\u0103 v\u0103 place mai bine a\u0219a). Merg\u00e2nd pe optimism \u0219i zic\u00e2nd, 7 c\u0103 e norocos, \u0219i presupun\u00e2nd fisiune complet\u0103 ( nu e cazul ,dar s\u0103 mergem pe optimism \u0219i progres – energia eliberat\u0103 e de apr. 24Gwh \/ kg ) rezult\u0103 c\u0103 dac\u0103 am merge doar pe uranium, la consumul curent ne-ar ajunge vreo 9,900 de ani +\/-. Foarte bun.

Comparabil cu carbunele despre care stim c\u0103 am avea in lume aproximativ 1,000 miliarde de tone metrice <\/a> \u0219i c\u0103 la o produc\u021bie de 8kwh\/kg de c\u0103ldur\u0103, presupun\u00e2nd eficien\u021b\u0103 unitar\u0103, ne-ar ajunge de-o m\u0103sea. \u00cen jur de 50 de ani dac\u0103 am consuma doar <\/strong> c\u0103rbune. Cam a\u0219a \u0219i petrolul<\/a> \u0219i tot a\u0219a \u0219i pe gaz<\/a>. Deci plec\u00e2nd de la premiza asta, pe fosili mai avem vreo 150 de ani p\u00e2n\u0103 ajungem la drojdie. Dac\u0103 m\u0103 \u00eentrebi pe mine, asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 SUNTEM pe drojdie. Sigur, nu am prospectat toat\u0103 planeta, z\u0103c\u0103minte se mai g\u0103sesc mereu, nu se mai exploreaz\u0103 suficient, dar am cam dep\u0103\u0219it de stadiul de z\u0103c\u0103minte care ie\u0219eau singure la suprafa\u021b\u0103, fie gaz, fie petrol, fie c\u0103rbune. Acuma e cu s\u0103pat dup\u0103 ele. S\u0103patul are un cost mai mare dec\u00e2t decopertatul, sau \u00eenfiptul unei \u021bevi. La petrol \u0219i gaz s-a trecut la stors p\u0103m\u00e2ntul pentru z\u0103c\u0103minte care-s nu-s bine sedimentate ( fracking ), vorba aia nici nu apuc\u0103 s\u0103 se formeze bine pic\u0103tura de petrol \u0219i suntem cu ochii pe ea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acuma, 10,000 de ani versus c\u00e2teva sute, da fac diferen\u021ba, de aia nem\u021bii par retarda\u021bi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asta e produc\u021bia de energie electric\u0103<\/a> anual\u0103 \u00een lume circa 2022. 25,000TWh reprezint\u0103 doar circa 14% din toat\u0103 energia consumat\u0103 pe planet\u0103 anual. Adic\u0103 consum\u0103m cea mai mare cantitate de energie sub alte forme, nu electric. Cum te-ai a\u0219tepta, \u00eenc\u0103lzirea tinde s\u0103 fie din alte surse, acolo fosilii sunt predominan\u021bi. Exist\u0103 fosili regenerabili ( lemne ) \u0219i ne, sau mai pu\u021bin regenerabili ( gaz, c\u0103rbune). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Cam a\u0219a arat\u0103 treaba pe consum<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Soarele este pielea pulii, nuclearul, singurul care conteaz\u0103 un pic la procente e cel mai pu\u021bin folosit dintre resursele care se termin\u0103 , de\u0219i avem pentru cel mai mult timp \u0219i <\/strong>suntem la 80% fosili, \u00een timp ce noi vis\u0103m net 0 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2040. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

F\u0103r\u0103 \u00eendoial\u0103 \u00een 150 de ani va trebui s\u0103 ne \u00eenc\u0103lzim cu altceva dec\u00e2t GCO ( gaz , c\u0103rbune, petrol) . Chiar dac\u0103 se mai g\u0103sesc z\u0103c\u0103minte nu vor mai fi de ajuns. Dac\u0103 nu cumva ne \u00eempu\u021bin\u0103m drastic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cens\u0103 momentan , f\u0103r\u0103 GCO economia , civiliza\u021bia \u0219i, \u00een general via\u021ba noastr\u0103 a\u0219a cum este ea acum nu e posibil\u0103 \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103. E amuzant c\u0103 cea mai abundent\u0103 resurs\u0103 de pe planet\u0103 e radia\u021bia solar\u0103. Aia spre care Germania merge cu ochii \u00eenchi\u0219i ( ca \u0219i spre v\u00e2nt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China \u0219i India sunt pe c\u0103rbuni, efectiv. Ambele cu 55% c\u0103rbune \u0219i au \u00eempreun\u0103 35% din popula\u021bia lumii. \u0218i ambele consum\u0103 circa 60% din consumul global de c\u0103rbune, un fel de 2 la 1 raportat la propor\u021bia de popula\u021bie \u0219i au cam 23% din proiec\u021bia global\u0103 de rezerve. La rata actual\u0103 a consumului China mai are vreo 35% de ani de c\u0103rbune , iar India pu\u021bin peste 100 din rezervele lor ( evident c\u0103 \u0219i import\u0103). Dar \u00een India cre\u0219te <\/strong> consumul de c\u0103rbune \u0219i \u00een cifre absolute \u0219i propor\u021bional cu celelalte surse de energie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asia este continentul unde tr\u0103ie\u0219te mai mult de jum\u0103tate din popula\u021bia lumii , care depind in propor\u021bie de 85% de fosili din care 40% de c\u0103rbune. Europa are sub 10% din rezervele mondiale de c\u0103rbune – am putea spune sec c\u0103 nu mai are. Cu excep\u021bia Ucrainei \u0219i a Poloniei care su singure vreo 3% \u0219i respectiv 2.5% din rezerva global\u0103, destul s\u0103 \u021bin\u0103 toat\u0103 Europa \u00een spinare pentru mai bine de 50 de ani, la cum consum\u0103 acum Europa c\u0103rbune. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Problemele energetice \u00een Europa , care viseaz\u0103 independen\u021b\u0103 Energetic\u0103 sunt la gaz \u0219i la petrol, evident <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rom\u00e2nia mai are undeva \u00een jurul a 10 ani de gaz, cu toate rezervele nou descoperite \u0219i \u00ee\u0219i cre\u0219te consumul. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uk mai are 3, cum ar veni c\u0103 sunt pe drojdie. Bine\u00een\u021beles c\u0103 mai toate \u021b\u0103rile din Europa import\u0103 gaz \u0219i petrol \u00een disperare. \u0218i consumul de gaz tot cre\u0219te \u00een Europa , \u00een ciuda lipsei lui. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 v\u0103 \u00eentreba\u021bi dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia face bine c\u0103 \u00eenchide centralele pe c\u0103rbune , \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care Europa mai are resurse, eu cred c\u0103 da. De\u0219i ma vede\u021bi r\u0103zle\u021b mineri protest\u00e2nd pe alocuri, Rom\u00e2nia nu mai are c\u0103rbune c\u00e2t s\u0103 fie fezabil m\u0103car ca resurs\u0103 strategic\u0103. La rata actual\u0103 de consum ne mai ajunge 10 ani. \u0218i gata. Dup\u0103 aia suntem pe import total. Plus, calitatea c\u0103rbunelui rom\u00e2nesc e slab\u0103. E bun s\u0103 mai r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 pe undeva gata de scos \u0219i s\u0103 mai r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een stand by ceva cazane pe undeva. Dar cam at\u00e2t. E mort deja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rom\u00e2nia import\u0103 petrol demult \u0219i are rezerve de circa 8 ani – probabil men\u021binute strategic. Dar, dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m cinstit Rom\u00e2nia, Europa, NU au resurse energetice, merg pe import, iar de la \u021b\u0103rile care au, cu excep\u021bia Statelor Unite, nu prea te po\u021bi a\u0219tepta s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 solu\u021bii . <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen termeni de Uraniu ( nici de \u0103sta n-avem mult, spoiler ), Rom\u00e2nia are vreo 6600 de tone minabile cu un cost sub $260\/ ton\u0103 ( e un standard de clasificare a resurselor ), de ajuns s\u0103 produc\u0103 undeva la 150,000 TWh energie, adic\u0103 aproape 1 an de consumul Global, sau 6 ani dac\u0103 ne referim doar la produc\u021bia global\u0103 de electricitate curent\u0103. Rom\u00e2nia \u00eens\u0103 consum\u0103 undeva \u00eentre 50-60TWh de curent electric anual, randamentul de producere al energiei electrice e probabil sub 50% dar ori\u0219ic\u0103t, uraniul \u0103sta, ne-ar asigura curentul pe durate comparabile cu 1000 de ani, ceea ce face clar c\u0103 aici e salvarea.
Momentan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Poate pe termen scurt. Poate vi se pare retardat c\u0103 Germania renun\u021b\u0103 la energia nuclear\u0103 c\u0103 nu e verde, c\u0103. \u0218i mie. C\u0103, pe termen…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26570,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3499,3539],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-energie"],"views":847,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-20.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-6Uw","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26568"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26568\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26584,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26568\/revisions\/26584"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26570"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}