{"id":29387,"date":"2024-11-29T04:04:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-29T04:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=29387"},"modified":"2024-11-20T00:57:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T00:57:34","slug":"prognosticuri-de-alegeri-parlamentare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=29387","title":{"rendered":"Prognosticuri de alegeri parlamentare"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Foarte probabil, dup\u0103 alegeri, guvernul care se va coaliza va continua s\u0103 includ\u0103 PSD \u0219i PNL, posibil, de data asta \u0219i cu UDMR. Probabil c\u0103-\u0219i vor pune \u00eenapoi perucile de\u0219ucheate, se vor \u0219terge unii pe al\u021bii de flegme \u0219i se vor pupa pe obrajii spoi\u021bi \u0219i aia e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zic asta \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care, tradi\u021bional, guvernarea va continua s\u0103 coaguleze majorit\u0103\u021bile \u0219i fe\u021bele \u0219tiute c\u00e2t\u0103 vreme PSD + PNL + UDMR > 50%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Din inecua\u021bia asta UDMR e un parametru relativ constant, deoarece scorul lor e undeva la 6% cu un interval de varia\u021bie de cam +\/- 1% maxim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

PSD se uit\u0103 undeva \u00eentre 29% \u0219i 35%, iar PNL intre 14% \u0219i 24%. Cam a\u0219a arat\u0103 marjele lor de sondaje de la pesimist la optimist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen cel mai – cel mai pesimist scenariu, de 29+14+5%, scorul celor 3 partide va ajunge la 48%. \u00cen acest scenariu vor \u00eencerca , cel mai probabil, cooptarea USR la guvernare, vor s\u0103 mai fure ceva deputa\u021bi de pe undeva \u0219i probabil vor face drop USR-ului mai \u00eencolo, c\u0103 probabil nu se pot \u00een\u021belege. Sau, ar putea face, din nou drop UDMR-ului, dar e improbabil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen cele mai optimiste scenarii – 35+24+7 – PSD \u0219i PNL nu mai au nevoie de UDMR.
Nu cred \u00een scenarii de tipul PSD+AUR, de\u0219i se vehiculeaz\u0103. Doar dac\u0103 PNL ar refuza guvernarea, av\u00e2nd procent mare, sau dac\u0103 ies terfeli\u021bi r\u0103u de tot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

De pild\u0103, \u00eentr-un scenariu \u00een care PSD iese OK, dar nu prea bine, iar PNL iese praf, o alian\u021b\u0103 na\u021bional\u0103 nu se poate realiza – \u00een teorie ar putea exista o alian\u021b\u0103 PSD+USR+UDMR, practic n-o v\u0103d posibil\u0103, o alian\u021b\u0103 PNL+USR+UDMR n-ar putea aduce scor destul \u0219i ar fi mai probabil\u0103 o alian\u021b\u0103 consolidat\u0103 PSD+AUR, \u00eentr-un asemenea scenariu.
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Nu cred c\u0103 un guvern f\u0103r\u0103 ambele PSD \u0219i PNL este posibil realistic, pentru c\u0103 \u0219i dac\u0103 \u00eempreun\u0103 ar ob\u021bine sub 50%, chiar dac\u0103 \u0219i \u00eempreun\u0103 cu UDMR ar ob\u021bine sub 50%, \u00eentrebarea care survine ar fi UNDE ar merge celelalte procente? Cred c\u0103 nu e credibil ca s\u0103 mearg\u0103 toate la USR, dar chiar \u0219i \u00eentr-un asemenea scenariu optimist, probabil c\u0103 USR ar prefera tot o alian\u021b\u0103 care ar include unul din cele 2 partide, dec\u00e2t AUR sau \u0219i SOS.
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Lucru nu neap\u0103rat util pe termen lung, deoarece guvernele se erodeaz\u0103, iar AUR va cre\u0219te \u00een opozi\u021bie, \u00een contextul geopolitic previzibil \u00een viitor. Dar cam a\u0219a func\u021bioneaz\u0103 mecanicile politice, se dore\u0219te \u021binerea la u\u0219\u0103 a ceea ce este numit curent extremist sau na\u021bionalist, p\u00e2n\u0103 sparge u\u0219a. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nu am luat \u00een calcul REPER \u0219i alte partide mici, care, \u00een teorie, ar putea produce surprize , dar este oricum implauzibil\u0103 o situa\u021bie unde PSD s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 sub 20% ( c\u0103 probabil 20% din voturi sunt membrii lor de partid \u0219i apar\u021bin\u0103torii ) c\u0103 orice membru are o so\u021bie, o sor\u0103, un frate, o ceva. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La fel de implauzibil este ca AUR+SOS s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 50%. Nu imposibil, doar implauzibil. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Foarte probabil, dup\u0103 alegeri, guvernul care se va coaliza va continua s\u0103 includ\u0103 PSD \u0219i PNL, posibil, de data asta \u0219i cu UDMR. Probabil c\u0103-\u0219i…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politice"],"views":620,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/graph.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-7DZ","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29387"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29393,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29387\/revisions\/29393"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}