{"id":31516,"date":"2025-05-24T00:57:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-23T23:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=31516"},"modified":"2025-05-22T07:26:10","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T06:26:10","slug":"hedging","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=31516","title":{"rendered":"Hedging"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dac\u0103 am v\u0103zut ce \u0219i cum cu polymarket-ul \u0103la ( pe care nu vi-l recomand*, c\u0103 e un c\u0103cat mai arbitrar dec\u00e2t orice bet), am pus \u0219i io 5 parai d-\u0103ia criptofal\u0219i p\u0103 Simion, c\u0103 io \u0219tiu istoric c\u0103 am votat , \u00een general, cu candidatul care a pierdut alegerile \u0219i m\u0103 preg\u0103team \u0219i acum.
\u0218tii cum e, dai un vot, faci un bot, m\u0103car bani de-un bilet de tramvai s\u0103 am.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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M-am uitat \u00een jurul meu \u0219i fiind diasporean \u00een \u021bar\u0103 de suverani\u0219ti n-am putut citi altceva dec\u00e2t \u201dvot\u0103m masiv Simion\u201d. Mna, eu n-am votat a\u0219a masiv, dar dac\u0103 pierd m\u0103car s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tig, sau invers.
La ora la care va ap\u0103rea articolul \u0103sta eu voi fi \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i poate voi update articolul cu concluzia \u00een func\u021bie de rezultat, dac\u0103 nu uit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u0103 d-aia zic, nu \u0219tiu cum s-au terminat alegerile, dac\u0103 e acceptabil s\u0103 zic c\u0103 am votat cu Nicu\u0219or, sau de data asta nu mai e voie. Eh, v\u0103d io…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zic nu vi-l recomand c\u0103 aparent, \u00een rezolvarea pariurilor nu folosesc vreo autoritate a lumii reale ci… un sistem de vot\/ alte pariuri, cu vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi de pay to win.
Anume, s\u0103 zicem c\u0103 a c\u00e2\u0219tigat Nicu\u0219or Dan, iar eu ar trebui s\u0103 pierd 5 parai pe Simion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 sta\u021bi prost cu logica sau cu nervii, evita\u021bi s\u0103 citi\u021bi mai jos c\u0103 poate p\u0103rea o pledoarie pentru absurd, dar nu e. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ar trebui, pentru c\u0103 \u0219tim realitatea pe care o observ\u0103m, iar, \u00een acest caz realitatea este stabilit\u0103 de Autoritatea Electoral\u0103 Permanent\u0103 \u0219i oricine vrea s\u0103 \u0219tie cine a c\u0103\u0219tigat alegerile \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, \u00ee\u0219i ia rezultatul, direct sau indirect, de la aceast\u0103 autoritate. Dac\u0103 cineva falsific\u0103 acest rezultat ( adic\u0103 zice el c\u0103 rezultatul a fost altfel) – verificarea rezonabil\u0103 se face c\u0103tre o surs\u0103 c\u00e2t mai aproape de AEP, dac\u0103 consultarea direct\u0103 a AEP nu e posbil\u0103.
\u00cen trecut, \u00eenainte s\u0103 fie totul pe intrenet, la dispozi\u021bia direct\u0103 a utilizatorului, tu nu-\u021bi luai informa\u021bia de la BEC\/AEP direct, c\u0103 era dificil accesul. BEC \/ AEP transmiteau informa\u021bia c\u0103tre public prin ni\u0219te intermediari, agen\u021bi adic\u0103, de \u00eencredere \u0219i de regul\u0103 mai mul\u021bi. C\u0103 le spui broadcasteri, c\u0103 pres\u0103, spune-le cum vrei, erau ni\u0219te agen\u021bi de \u00eencredere. Dac\u0103 unul o lua pe ar\u0103tur\u0103, orice cet\u0103\u021bean putea apela la surse alternative, dar toate se supuneau aceluia\u0219i AEP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen cadrul AEP, evident c\u0103 e un proces de validare \u0219i ni\u0219te agen\u021bi care stabilesc rezultatul, pe baza regulilor procesului, observatori str\u0103ini etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Te-ai a\u0219tepta ca o platform\u0103 de pariuri de felul \u0103sta s\u0103 se supun\u0103 \u0219i ea autorit\u0103\u021bii recunoscute general, c\u0103 e cel mai simplu \u0219i logic, dar nu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ei au platforma lor de \u201drezolvare a pie\u021bei\u201d \u0219i stabilire a rezultatului numit\u0103, nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 ironic, \u201dOracolul Optimist\u201d sau UMA<\/a>.
Unora dintre actorii din sistemul \u0103sta, numi\u021bi proponen\u021bi, li se cere s\u0103 propun\u0103 un r\u0103spuns \u0219i ei fac asta.
Al\u021bi actori numi\u021bi \u201ddisputori\u201d pot disputa r\u0103spunsul dac\u0103 au alt\u0103 p\u0103rere \u0219i e un proces efectiv de arbitraj, care n-are neap\u0103rat ceva de a face cu realitatea. Pe scurt, ni\u0219te unii de la UMA voteaz\u0103 ei separat de realitate, poate bazat pe realitate, poate pe interesul lor in pariul respectiv, cine a c\u00e2\u0219tigat.
Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 exist\u0103 o \u0219ans\u0103 ca Nicu\u0219or s\u0103 fi pierdut alegerile \u0219i \u00een acela\u0219i timp, eu s\u0103 pierd \u0219i banii pu\u0219i pe Simion, dac\u0103 Nicu\u0219or are ni\u0219te fani mai febrili \u00een simularea asta, dec\u00e2t o fi avut \u00een cabinele de vot.
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Am mai pariat 5 parai  dup\u0103 \u00eenchiderea urnelor, c\u00e2nd propagandi\u0219tii \u00ee\u0219i retr\u0103geau ce mai puteau din fonduri v\u00e2nz\u00e2nd la orice cot\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rezultatele nu erau determinate, dar cota cailor crescuse la 1:20.\u00a0 Am considerat c\u0103 e o cot\u0103 bun\u0103 \u0219i am mai b\u0103gat 5 parai pe Simion , de\u0219i era probabil \u00een acel moment s\u0103 c\u00e2\u0219tige Nicu\u0219or, dar eu dac\u0103 bag la p\u0103c\u0103nele sunt hardcore , nu a\u0219a. Hardcore cu 10 dolari.\u00a0 Am prins ocazii s\u0103 v\u00e2nd tot cu pierdere de “doar” 2 dolari .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dac\u0103 a c\u00e2\u0219tigat Simion , avem caii \u00een sufragerie , dar \u0219i 100 de parai la poznar.  Dac\u0103 a pierdut, am pierdut \u0219i io 10 parai, dar scoatem caii din sufragerie. Este un hedging bun. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dac\u0103 am v\u0103zut ce \u0219i cum cu polymarket-ul \u0103la ( pe care nu vi-l recomand*, c\u0103 e un c\u0103cat mai arbitrar dec\u00e2t orice bet), am…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":31549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[170],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politice"],"views":562,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/8bfe77b4f7a8c7b051d8f41cf2014af7.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/s4Eq23-hedging","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31516"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31516\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31621,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31516\/revisions\/31621"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/31549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}