{"id":33240,"date":"2025-10-18T10:07:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T09:07:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=33240"},"modified":"2025-09-12T10:30:52","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T09:30:52","slug":"stam-bine-de-tot-pe-inflatie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=33240","title":{"rendered":"St\u0103m bine de tot pe infla\u021bie"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Articol scris acum mai bine de o lun\u0103, pentru acces imediat intra\u021bi pe patreon. 
Glumesc, b\u0103, nu e niciun patreon \u0219i niciun acces imediat, a\u0219a le programez eu, c\u0103 nu e grab\u0103. <\/em>

Ce e interesant e c\u00e2t mai st\u0103 cursul euro la 5 lei, sau \u00een jur. C\u0103 de ce zic asta - e c\u0103 \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103 costurile din Rom\u00e2nia se ridic\u0103 indiferent de moned\u0103, c\u0103 cumperi \u00een euro sau lei. Asta, e posibil \u00eentr-o \u021bar\u0103 izolat\u0103 economic - iar Rom\u00e2nia nu e, \u00eentr-o \u021bar\u0103 cu excedent de balan\u021b\u0103 comercial\u0103 - Rom\u00e2nia nu e, fie \u00eentr-o \u021bar\u0103 \u00een care cineva compenseaz\u0103 diferen\u021ba de curs.  Dac\u0103 mai sunt alte posibilibit\u0103\u021bi, eu nu le v\u0103d. <\/pre>\n\n\n\n
Infla\u021bia anual\u0103 \u00een august a fost de 9.9%, iar infla\u021bia anual\u0103 \u00een iulie a fost de 7.84%<\/a>. Asta se traduce prin faptul c\u0103 m\u0103rirea TVA s-a reflectat \u00een tocmai ca povar\u0103 la cump\u0103r\u0103torul final, nu a fost nimic absorbit de ceilal\u021bi juc\u0103tori economici. 
OK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Diferen\u021ba de curs EUR\/LEU pe perioada de un an a fost de doar 2%. 
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Balan\u021ba comercial\u0103 se afl\u0103 pe un trend negativ ( 10Y) conform Trading Economics, \u00eens\u0103 pentru ce conteaz\u0103, pe o fereastr\u0103 redus\u0103 se vede un trend  de reducere a deficitului comercial YTD.  La volumul tranzac\u021bionat, deficitul comercial exprimat procentual e undeva la 30%.
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Prin urmare, te-ai a\u0219tepta ca o infla\u021bie de 10% pe leu, s\u0103 produc\u0103 o reflec\u021bie pe curs undeva \u00een zona  de 30%*10% – adic\u0103 pe la 3% – formula matematic\u0103 e mai complex\u0103 \u0219i 2% e \u00een zona aia. 
Treaba e c\u0103 pe de o parte, pare amuzant c\u0103 statul rom\u00e2n a pus \u00een v\u00e2nzare \u00een septembrie \u0219i octombrie titluri fidelis \u0219i tezaur cu dob\u00e2nzi de 7-<\/a>8%. \u0218i puf\u0103iam c\u0103 ha!  \u0102\u0219tia \u00ee\u0219i bat joc.  Bagi banii cu profitabilitate sub infla\u021bie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Da \u0219i nu. Dac\u0103 cheltuie\u0219ti bani \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, da, e\u0219ti futut. Dar eu nu. Dac\u0103 scot 8% pe an \u0219i pe urm\u0103 schimb banii \u00een Euro, cu o pierdere la curs tot de 2% am 6% profit. Da, am mecanisme s\u0103 schimb banii f\u0103r\u0103 comisioane mari la cursul de schimb. Infla\u021bia pe Euro, \u00een zona euro e sub 3%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Treaba e a\u0219a, pe asseturi \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, nu prea pute\u021bi scoate rentabilit\u0103\u021bi deasupra infla\u021biei, anul \u0103sta. Ghinion.   Tot nu sf\u0103tuiesc pe nimeni s\u0103 dea bani statului Rom\u00e2n, este doar un calcul economic, care pare c\u0103 merge \u00een favoarea mea – c\u00e2t\u0103 vreme taica Is\u0103rescu \u021bine cu din\u021bii de cursul euro. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apropo, mai \u0219ti\u021bi gargara  c\u0103 cursul a crescut din cauza inten\u021biei de vot pentru George Simion?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Care, uite c\u0103 n-a c\u00e2\u0219tigat, \u0219i cursul a sc\u0103zut el un pic, dup\u0103 ce n-au mai b\u0103gat \u00een el, dar nu \u0219i-a mai revenit niciodat\u0103 – c\u0103 nu avea justificare financiar\u0103 de fapt, \u00eenc\u0103 o dat\u0103 GG BNR \u0219i lui taica Is\u0103rescu pentru stuntul politic de care a profitat s\u0103 mai dea drumul la curs cu costul pe umerii popula\u021biei, g\u0103sit\u0103 de vin\u0103 c\u0103 a sponsorizat extremi\u0219ti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Articol scris acum mai bine de o lun\u0103, pentru acces imediat intra\u021bi pe patreon. Glumesc, b\u0103, nu e niciun patreon \u0219i niciun acces imediat, a\u0219a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9618,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3499,170],"tags":[6788,6786,6787],"class_list":["post-33240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economie","category-politice","tag-cursul-euro-2025","tag-inflatie-romania","tag-titluri-de-stat-fidelis"],"views":348,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/1893-isarescu-10.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-8E8","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33240","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33240"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33240\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33246,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33240\/revisions\/33246"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9618"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33240"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33240"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33240"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}