{"id":34706,"date":"2026-01-21T02:16:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T02:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=34706"},"modified":"2026-01-21T02:16:30","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T02:16:30","slug":"din-teoria-loto-nu-dar-mi-au-crescut-sansele","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=34706","title":{"rendered":"Din teoria loto: Nu, dar&nbsp; mi-au crescut \u0219ansele"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n\n<p>C\u00e2ndva o s\u0103 scriu un articol mai lung despre asta, dar nu acum. Prin 2002 \/2003 am dezvoltat un \u00eenceput de teorie derivat\u0103 din teoria numerelor mari, bazat\u0103 pe spa\u021bii de configurare, care trebuia s\u0103 prevad\u0103 numerele care vor fi extrase la loto. Stiu c\u0103 sun\u0103 t\u00e2mpit, pentru c\u0103 este t\u00e2mpit, iar povestea este \u0219i mai t\u00e2mpit\u0103 , dar, \u00een ap\u0103rarea mea , de-a lungul vremii au fost mul\u021bi oameni preocupa\u021bi de asta, a\u0219a c\u0103 unul \u00een prus nu stric\u0103. La ceva timpul dup\u0103 asta , 10 ani, un nene profesor\u00a0 brazilian, Renato Gianella\u00a0 , a publicat <a href=\"https:\/\/biometria.ufla.br\/antigos\/fasciculos\/v31\/v31_n4\/A7_RGiarelli.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">o teorie similar\u0103 dar simplificat\u0103<\/a>, care tot nu cred c\u0103 merge , dar m\u0103car a lui era testabil\u0103 \u0219i mai clar definit\u0103.\u00a0 Pentru a o testa pe a mea, la puterea de calcul de atunci aveam nevoie de un timp de calcul estimativ egal cu 10^31 secunde. \u0218i nu a crescut suficient de mult puterea de procesare ca s\u0103 sper la un rezultat. \u00a0 M\u0103sur\u0103am o fereastr\u0103 de extrageri de vreo 10 ani pe atunci ( 520 de extrageri &#8211; nu mai \u021bin minte exact ) , care \u00eenseamn\u0103 un tablou de 3120 de numere care aveau secven\u021bialitate c\u00e2t \u0219i alte rela\u021bii \u00eentre ele, la generarea aleatoare de numere , \u00een idea\u00a0 de a repeta in extragerea aleatoare secven\u021ba generat\u0103 deja\u00a0 \u0219i ceea ce voiam s\u0103 dovedesc era c\u0103 datorit\u0103 corela\u021biilor numerice dintre configura\u021bii, dac\u0103 reu\u0219esc s\u0103 g\u0103sesc un mecanism care replic\u0103 o secven\u021b\u0103 suficient de mare este foarte probabil ca urm\u0103toarea extragere s\u0103 se potriveasc\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nu \u0219tiu \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 ideea mea de atunci \u021bine ap\u0103 c\u0103 nu am reu\u0219it s\u0103 ajung m\u0103car aproape cu calculele a\u0219a c\u0103 am \u00eencercat inferen\u021be pe spa\u021bii de varia\u021bie derivate,&nbsp; care , principial e o gre\u0219eal\u0103, dar aveam ceva succes &#8211; izolam cele 6 numere \u00een 20 cele mai probabile, cu o relevan\u021b\u0103 statistic\u0103 de 2 sigma, care e insuficient c\u0103 argument \u0219tiin\u021bific, dar este un indicator de distribu\u021bie anormal\u0103,c\u00e2t s\u0103 spui c\u0103 &#8220;e ceva acolo, dar nu \u0219tiu ce &#8220;. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen fine, c\u00e2nd o s\u0103 am timp \u0219i poft\u0103 am s\u0103 reiau..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Discutam cu cineva \u00eentr-o \u0219edin\u021b\u0103 care \u00eemi spunea c\u0103 tot timpul joac\u0103 dou\u0103 bilete la loto, nu unul. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eu , care nu joc niciunul de mai bine de 20 de ani, dar am f\u0103cut acela\u0219i lucru din motive vag diferite, doar ca s\u0103 constat , c\u0103 matematic nimeritul celor 6 numere \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bite \u00een mod egal pe ambele bilete, chit c\u0103 e un eveniment cu probabilitate foarte mic\u0103, la fel ca orice alt\u0103 configura\u021bie nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 altceva dec\u00e2t c\u0103 n-am c\u00e2\u0219tigat nimic &#8211; am \u00eentrebat care sunt motivele. Eu aveam , pe vremea mea, motive obiective, m\u0103 rog a\u0219a credeam eu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anume, estimam un set de numere probabile \u0219i nu prea \u00eel puteam reduce sub 12 numere, pe baza a logicii pe care voiam s-o testez atunci. Realitatea era c\u0103 nici cele 12 numere nu le puteam calcula corect sau complet ( at\u00e2t de complet c\u00e2te date aveam ) din lips\u0103 de resurse de calcul , era bun un calculator cuantic.\u00a0 A\u0219a c\u0103 jucam dou\u0103 bilete, lucru care nu \u00eensemna dec\u00e2t c\u0103 eram \u0219i s\u0103rac \u0219i zg\u00e2rcit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L-am \u00eentrebat, evident, de ce 2 \u0219i nu 1 . \u0218i mi-a r\u0103spuns simplu c\u0103 e pentru \u0219anse duble. \u0218i l-am \u00eentrebat dac\u0103 a c\u00e2\u0219tigat. \u00cenc\u0103 nu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I-am spus c\u0103 \u0219i eu \u00eemi fac patul in fiecare diminea\u021b\u0103 ( min\u021beam, dar discutam filozofic ) pentru c\u0103 exist\u0103 un studiu efectuat pe milionari, care a g\u0103sit o corela\u021bie in asta \u0219i\u00a0 de unde rezult\u0103 c\u0103 dac\u0103 \u00ee\u021bi faci patul \u00een fiecare diminea\u021b\u0103 \u00ee\u021bi cresc \u0219ansele cu peste 200% s\u0103 ajungi milionar. Fie vorba \u00eentre noi, nu mai \u00eenseamn\u0103 mare lucru asta, \u00een zilele noastre &#8211; sunt trei milioane \u00een UK, \u00een mare datorit\u0103 pre\u021bului caselor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0218i m-a intrebat dac\u0103 sunt milionar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cenc\u0103 nu, dar am \u0219anse de dou\u0103 ori mai mari acum. \u00cen \u021bara lui mai pu\u021bin de 1% din popula\u021bie erau milionari. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2% e dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de 1% ( distribu\u021bia natural\u0103) , dar dac\u0103 te bazezi doar pe asta doar un tr\u0103znet cu bulan te poate ajuta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1080\" height=\"1550\" data-attachment-id=\"34704\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?attachment_id=34704#main\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1080,1550\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screenshot_20251222-033032704 (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-34704\" srcset=\"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129.jpg 1080w, https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129-334x480.jpg 334w, https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129-139x200.jpg 139w, https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129-768x1102.jpg 768w, https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129-1070x1536.jpg 1070w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1080px) 100vw, 1080px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>C\u00e2ndva o s\u0103 scriu un articol mai lung despre asta, dar nu acum. Prin 2002 \/2003 am dezvoltat un \u00eenceput de teorie derivat\u0103 din teoria&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":34705,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"views":334,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot_20251222-03303270428129-1.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-91M","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34706"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34706\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35034,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34706\/revisions\/35034"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/34705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}