{"id":35587,"date":"2026-03-06T05:51:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T05:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=35587"},"modified":"2026-03-06T07:43:48","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T07:43:48","slug":"noua-schema-financiara-creditele-private","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/?p=35587","title":{"rendered":"Noua schem\u0103 financiar\u0103 : Creditele Private"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u021aine\u021bi minte cuvintele \u0103stea trei: \u201dPrivate Credit Market<\/strong>\u201d. E cumva legat de \u201dcriza datoriilor\u201d – c\u0103 nu degeaba urlu ca lupu la lun\u0103 \u201dnu mai lua\u021bi bani \u00eemprumut, lumeee!\u201d.

Unii zic c\u0103 de aici ni se trage tura asta, c\u0103 asta va genera noua criz\u0103 financiar\u0103 , etc – prohoade.
Nu \u0219tiu dac\u0103 e a\u0219a, dar bag\u0103 la cap c\u00e2nd te g\u00e2nde\u0219ti unde \u00ee\u021bi \u021bii banii \u0219i investi\u021biile. Dac\u0103 ai, dac\u0103 nu, te doare la banan\u0103. Nokia banan\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proba 1. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0102\u0219tia vorbesc de riscuri care au ap\u0103rut \u00een 2025 pe pia\u021ba de private credit<\/strong> (\u00eemprumuturi acordate de fonduri private companiilor, \u00een afara pie\u021belor publice), deci problemele probabil c\u0103 erau mai demult acolo, \u0219i colc\u0103iau prin dosare ascunse, c\u0103 a\u0219a merge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cic\u0103 unul dintre cele mai importante riscuri este relaxarea standardelor de credit. Zici?!
Cre\u0219terea rapid\u0103 a capitalului care intr\u0103 \u00een sector pune presiune pe menajeri<\/em> s\u0103 bage bani ( pentru c\u0103 bandwagon \u0219i FOMO?) , ceea ce poate duce la finan\u021barea unor companii mai riscante.
Problemele apar mereu de la \u201drelax\u0103ri\u201d – adic\u0103 nu mai po\u021bi face bani din gunoaiele obi\u0219nuite sub standardele existente, c\u0103 a ajuns presul sub care st\u0103 gunoiul p\u00e2n\u0103 la tavan \u0219i ridici un pic tavanul ca s\u0103 mai intre.
Zic ei de existen\u021ba unor \u201esigns of loosening credit standards across both public and private markets<\/strong>\u201d, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 unele \u00eemprumuturi sunt acordate \u00een condi\u021bii mai permisive dec\u00e2t \u00een trecut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un alt risc major este lipsa de transparen\u021b\u0103 – c\u0103 nu sunt obliga\u021bi s\u0103 raporteze ca b\u0103ncile. Ia-o ca pe un \u201dundergrown banking\u201d sau \u201ddark banking\u201d. \u00cen private credit nu sunt publice o gr\u0103mad\u0103 de informa\u021bii: \u00eemprumuturile nu sunt tranzac\u021bionate pe pie\u021be, evalu\u0103rile sunt interne, iar ratingurile nu-s musai \u0103lea de la credit score. Zic c\u0103 \u201ethe lack of transparency around the extent of this risk-taking remains a concern<\/strong>\u201d. Adic\u0103 nu \u0219tie nici dracu care e riscul real. Nu \u0219tia!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Articolul men\u021bioneaz\u0103 \u0219i nivelul ridicat de \u00eendatorare al companiilor finan\u021bate prin astfel de \u00eemprumuturi. Unele structuri includ \u201ehigh leverage, opaque valuations, and complex bank-linked financing<\/strong>\u201d, adic\u0103 firme \u00eendatorate p\u00e2n\u0103 peste coaie ( sun\u0103 cunoscut?) \u0219i structuri financiare complicate, care \u201dpot deveni vulnerabile dac\u0103 economia \u00eencetine\u0219te sau dac\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate\u201d. De aia url\u0103 Trump – \u00een america la \u0103la c\u0103 nu scade dracului dob\u00e2nda de referin\u021b\u0103, c\u0103 \u00eel bag\u0103 la pu\u0219c\u0103rie. C\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un alt punct obi\u0219nuit \u00een colapsuri sistematice e \u201ddiferen\u021ba mare de performan\u021b\u0103\u201d ( a se citi unii sunt de-a dreptul incompeten\u021bi, al\u021bii corup\u021bi, al\u021bii la futu-i m\u0103-sa) \u00eentre managerii de fonduri. Autorii subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201emanager selection is critical<\/strong>\u201d, deoarece calitatea analizelor de credit \u0219i a controlului riscului variaz\u0103 mult \u00eentre administratori. Lol, da. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chiar dac\u0103 civilii investesc direct \u00een private credit – cum nu investeau nici \u00een CDS-uri \u00een 2008, \u00eei pot afecta indirect.
Fondurile de pensii, companiile de asigur\u0103ri \u0219i alte institu\u021bii barosane investesc \u00een astfel de active pentru a ob\u021bine randamente mai mari, sau din motive de afiliere, sau de spread. Dac\u0103 unele \u00eemprumuturi devin neperformante sau dac\u0103 apar probleme \u00een anumite fonduri, randamentele acestor institu\u021bii pot sc\u0103dea.
\u00cen teorie, exist\u0103 m\u0103suri de hedging \u0219i spread \u0219i faptul c\u0103 crap\u0103 un fond de investi\u021bii private nu ar trebui s\u0103 afecteze prea tare un fond de pensii. \u00cen teorie. C\u0103 de aia zic autorii c\u0103 , \u00een prezent, aceste riscuri par \u201elargely contained within private market assets<\/strong>\u201d.
\u00cen practic\u0103, stai s\u0103 vezi c\u00e2nd apar situa\u021bii c\u00e2nd c\u0103caturile \u0103stea sunt \u00een portofoliile tuturor \u00een cascad\u0103 – cum ziceau \u0103ia \u00een \u201dThe Big Short\u201d : \u201dCDSes on top of CDSes….\u201d
Adic\u0103: O companie de investi\u021bii, sau un fond de pensii, sau unul mutual, au ceva ac\u021biuni la o firm\u0103 de private credit \u0219i modereaz\u0103 riscul cu ni\u0219te bonduri private emise de o alt\u0103 firm\u0103 de investi\u021bii. Care firm\u0103 investe\u0219te \u0219i ea \u00een mizeriile \u0103stea. \u0218i poate fondul nostru mai are mai are ceva CDS-uri care con\u021bin la baz\u0103 riscuri de private equity. \u0218i poate are ac\u021biuni la o companie diferit\u0103, dar care e imprumutat\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 peste coaie prin private equity – pentru c\u0103 I S-A PERMIS.
Ghici ce, c\u00e2nd se d\u0103r\u00e2m\u0103 castelul de c\u0103r\u021bi de joc, firma de investi\u021bii, fondul de pensii , suge pula din toate direc\u021biile c\u0103 riscul \u0103la e a\u0219a de mare \u0219i extins c\u0103 e parte din tot spreadul de investi\u021bii. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proba 2. <\/a>

Articolul descrie o pia\u021b\u0103 de credite private care a crescut extrem de rapid de la o ni\u0219\u0103 financiar\u0103 , acum dou\u0103zeci de ani, la o industrie imens\u0103: activele au crescut \u201efrom $46 billion in 2000 to $1.7 trillion by 2023<\/strong>\u201d, iar unele estim\u0103ri indic\u0103 o posibil\u0103 extindere \u201eto $3 trillion by 2028<\/strong>\u201d. Pia\u021ba asta e comparabil\u0103, \u00een SUA cu diferite sectoare din pie\u021bele creditelor bancare.
Deci vorbim de un sistem financiar paralel, \u201dsubteran\u201d – vezi proba 1 cu transparen\u021ba.

Aceast\u0103 cre\u0219tere este aparent cauzat\u0103 de retragerea b\u0103ncilor dup\u0103 criza financiar\u0103 global\u0103 , de faptul c\u0103 regulile s-au \u00een\u0103sprit pentru b\u0103nci dar cererea investorilor pentru randamente mai mari n-a disp\u0103rut.

Ei zic c\u0103 ini\u021bial, creditul privat finan\u021ba companii solide care nu aveau acces la b\u0103nci, dar ast\u0103zi sectorul a devenit un ecosistem mare, cu \u201emii de fonduri\u201d care trebuie s\u0103 plaseze capital constant. Adic\u0103 sunt prea mul\u021bi pe pia\u021b\u0103, concuren\u021ba e mare \u0219i presiunea de a acorda \u00eemprumuturi duce la sc\u0103derea standardelor de creditare. Clasic, aceea\u0219i muzic\u0103 ca mai sus. E vorba de fapt de explorarea lipsurilor de reglementare, p\u00e2n\u0103 la paroxism – a\u0219 ad\u0103uga eu.
Asta se nume\u0219te supracapitalizare – bul\u0103. Le dai bani golanilor s\u0103 fac\u0103 gol\u0103nii, fac mai mul\u021bi bani, le dai \u0219i mai mul\u021bi bani c\u0103 merge !<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00e2n\u0103 nu mai merge. Cic\u0103 \u201emore than 40% of borrowers showed negative free cash flow at year-end 2024<\/strong>\u201d. \u00cen termeni simpli, asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 aproape jum\u0103tate dintre firmele care au luat astfel de credite nu genereaz\u0103 suficien\u021bi bani din activitatea lor pentru a acoperi investi\u021biile \u0219i datoriile – se duc \u00een g\u0103leat\u0103.
Cel mai tare, bomboana de pe colib\u0103, clasic american din nou, unele \u00eemprumuturi folosesc dob\u00e2nd\u0103 de tip \u201epayment-in-kind\u201d, unde dob\u00e2nda nu este pl\u0103tit\u0103 \u00een numerar, se adaug\u0103 la datorie, iar tipul de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 \u201eexceeds 10% of income at several top business development companies<\/strong>\u201d. Deci \u0103\u0219tia sunt mai r\u0103u ca bugetele \u021b\u0103rilor, dau mai bine de 10% din venituri doar pe dob\u00e2nd\u0103, doar c\u0103 , ca s\u0103 nu se vad\u0103 ca dob\u00e2nd\u0103 \u00een rapoartele anuale, o adaug\u0103 la suma \u00eemprumutat\u0103, \u201dpe caiet\u201d.
Cu cuvinte normale, \u0103\u0219tia nu reu\u0219esc s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103 dob\u00e2nda \u00een bani \u0219i \u00ee\u0219i cresc datoria total\u0103. Prin urmare, ideea cu \u0103ia 40% de mai sus e c\u0103 o propor\u021bie semnificativ\u0103 de \u00eemprumuta\u021bi nu \u00ee\u0219i reduc datoria, ci se afund\u0103 mai mult \u00een ea. Publicitate<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zic \u0103\u0219tia c\u0103 industria ar putea intra \u00eentr-un ciclu se restructur\u0103ri, deoarece multe \u00eemprumuturi ajung la scaden\u021b\u0103 \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 cu dob\u00e2nzi mai mari – adic\u0103 av\u00e2ntul pr\u0103bu\u0219irea. \u201e$1.7 trillion [in commercial mortgages] set to mature by 2026<\/strong>\u201d. \u021aine\u021bi-v\u0103 bine, pe unde da\u021bi cu sapa, posibile efecte \u00een lan\u021b. Sigur, \u201dacolo la ei\u201d , \u00een America, dar…
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 un num\u0103r mare de companii \u00eendatorate nu \u00ee\u0219i pot refinan\u021ba creditele, fie proiectele imobiliare intr\u0103 \u00een dificultate ( \u0103\u0219tia sunt fier\u021bi pe real-estate) , pot ap\u0103rea pierderi pentru fonduri, b\u0103nci \u0219i… fondurile de pensii.

Afterburnerul la schema asta obosit\u0103 a fost dat de deregularizarea f\u0103cut\u0103 de Trumpix anul trecut pentru fondurile in care \u00ee\u0219i \u021bin americanii banii de pensii – 401K<\/a> – c\u0103rora le-a permis s\u0103 investeasc\u0103 \u00een pia\u021ba asta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deci avem deja prea mul\u021bi bani \u00een c\u0103catul \u0103sta, de a devenit o problem\u0103: Perfect, hai s\u0103 b\u0103g\u0103m \u0219i mai mul\u021bi bani \u00een el!

Proba 3. <\/a>
Blue Owl Capital se cam duce pe pul\u0103.
Proba 4.<\/a>
Schema de \u00eemprumuturi private de la Black Rock se cam duce pe pul\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peste 6 luni or s\u0103 scrie prin ziarele economice rom\u00e2ne\u0219te despre asta. Poate. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u021aine\u021bi minte cuvintele \u0103stea trei: \u201dPrivate Credit Market\u201d. E cumva legat de \u201dcriza datoriilor\u201d – c\u0103 nu degeaba urlu ca lupu la lun\u0103 \u201dnu mai…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17330,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[6,3499],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-de-criza","category-economie"],"views":471,"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/running-hourglass.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p4Eq23-9fZ","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35587"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35587\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35604,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35587\/revisions\/35604"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/17330"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/catalinx.ro\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}